PSSST...THEY AREN'T WILLING TO THINK:

This prediction sounds bold primarily for the fact that most of us don't think about technology - or the history of technology - in century-long increments: "We're probably closer to the end of the automobility era than we are to its beginning," says Maurie Cohen, an associate professor in the Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. "If we're 100 years into the automobile era, it seems pretty inconceivable that the car as we know it is going to be around for another 100 years."

Cohen figures that we're unlikely to maintain the deteriorating Interstate Highway System for the next century, or to perpetuate for generations to come the public policies and subsidies that have supported the car up until now. Sitting in the present, automobiles are so embedded in society that it's hard to envision any future without them. But no technology - no matter how essential it seems in its own era - is ever permanent. Consider, just to borrow some examples from transportation history, the sailboat, the steamship, the canal system, the carriage, and the streetcar.

All of those technologies rose, became ubiquitous, and were eventually replaced. And that process followed a pattern that can tell us much about the future of the automobile - that is, if we're willing to think about it not in the language of today's "war on cars," but in the broad arc of time.

The replacement of the car is probably out there. We just don't fully recognize it yet.

"There's not going to be a cataclysmic moment," Cohen says of what's coming for the car. "Like any other technology that outlives its usefulness, it just sort of disappears into the background and we slowly forget about it." The landline telephone is undergoing that process right now. 

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