March 7, 2013
NOTHING COSTS MORE...:
Moore's law is not just for computers (Philip Ball, 05 March 2013, Nature)
Posted by Orrin Judd at March 7, 2013 8:23 PMIn a study published in PLoS ONE1, they compared several mathematical laws that purport to describe how the costs of technologies evolve, and found that the most accurate was one proposed as early as 1936. [...]The most accurate was Wright's law, but Moore's law was close behind, at least for a relatively modest time horizon of a few decades. The predictions were so similar for these two laws, in fact, that the researchers suspected they might be related.A link seems quite likely. In 1979, political scientist Devendra Sahal pointed out that if production of an item grows at an exponential rate, then Wright's law and Moore's law are equivalent4. The data confirm that production does indeed grow exponentially for a wide range of products. "You wouldn't necessarily expect that," says Trancik.That Moore's law applies at all to so many different industries is a surprise, since computing has often been regarded as a special case. "It's a much more general thing," says author Doyne Farmer, currently at the University of Oxford, UK.