October 30, 2012

MARGIN CALLS:

NPR Poll Finds Presidential Race Too Close To Call (RON ELVING and MARA LIASSON, 10/30/12, NPR)

The poll was the third conducted by this year's iteration of the NPR bipartisan polling team. The Republican pollster Whit Ayres of Resurgent Republic was joined in the effort by Democratic counterpart Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps (and the firm of Greenberg, Quinlan & Rosner). Their joint report was based on interviews with 1,000 likely voters conducted from Tuesday through Thursday last week (Oct. 23-25). The margin of error for such a poll is 3 percentage points for the national sample and 4.5 percentage points for the smaller sub-sample (462 respondents) in the battleground states.

Four weeks earlier, just before the first debate in Denver, the NPR team produced a report showing the president ahead by 7 points nationally and by 6 points in the battleground. That poll included a higher-than-usual elevated number of respondents who identified themselves as Democrats (7 points more than Republicans). The current poll shows those identifying with each of the two major parties to be closer to even (4 points).

Posted by at October 30, 2012 3:33 PM
  

blog comments powered by Disqus
« THE PLIGHT OF THE QUOTA HIRE: | Main | YOU COULDN'T EXPLAIN BAIN OVER THE COURSE OF A YEAR..." »