October 20, 2012

IF HE'S FAILING THAT FAST IN FL....:

After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? (NATE SILVER, 10/20/12, NY Times)

[F]lorida has been polled so densely that the overall trend has become clear: Mr. Romney has made larger-than-average gains in the state since the Denver debate, and has now become a definitive favorite there.

According to the FiveThirtyEight "now-cast" on Friday, Mr. Romney would be a 78 percent favorite to win Florida in an election held today. Projecting forward to Nov. 6 introduces a bit more uncertainty, but he's now a 69 percent favorite to carry the state on Election Day, according to the model.

Mr. Romney's gains in Florida call into question how vigorously the campaigns should be contesting it over the final two weeks of the campaign. Mr. Romney might consider relaxing his efforts there, while Mr. Obama's campaign might consider de-emphasizing the state.


...what swing state is the UR likely to hold onto?  Isn't this just a matter of FL being a state where the polling is especially good?

Posted by at October 20, 2012 2:52 PM
  

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