October 30, 2012

AND REPORTEDLY...:

This Early Vote Calculation from Gallup Looks Terrible for Obama (David Weigel, Oct. 30, 2012, Slate)

As it conducted tracking polls (which have been paused for now), Gallup asked voters whether they'd cast ballots or intended to before election day.  The early voters broke 52-46 for Mitt Romney. The dawdling voters who would vote before election day were tied, 49-49. The voters waiting for November 6 broke for Romney, again, by a 6-point margin.

This would be easy to explain away if Obama had lagged in 2008's early vote. After all, this study includes votes in Georgia and Texas and other places that have broken away from Obama. But... in 2008, Obama was winning this vote. An identical Gallup study taken around the same time gave Obama a 53-43 lead with early voters and a 50-44 lead on voters who would wait for election day. 

...the Obama camp is turning out its die-hard voters early while the Romney camp is getting out the slackers.
Posted by at October 30, 2012 6:36 PM
  

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