August 17, 2012

THE BASE STRIKES AGAIN:

Stage Officially Set for Competitive Senate Contests in Wisconsin, Florida, Connecticut (JESSICA TAYLOR, AUGUST 15, 2012, Rothenberg Report)

Most Republicans in the state regarded Thompson as the strongest challenger to Baldwin anyway, and some privately had concerns that either Hovde or Neumann couldn't match up. And while the former governor once had crossover appeal to independents and Democrats, the 70 year-old Thompson now faces a much polarized electorate than in the nineties. The NRSC has reserved $5 million of ad time in Wisconsin, while the DSCC has not yet made a reservation. Republicans believe they can paint Baldwin as too out of touch with the state and were enthused by Gov. Scott Walker's successful rebuff of the June recall, but this race remains very close and should be an evenly matched race.

In Connecticut, Rep. Chris Murphy secured the Democratic nomination with his 68 percent to 32 percent victory over Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz. Murphy will face 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon in the general election after the former wrestling executive easily defeated former Rep. Chris Shays, 73 percent to 27 percent, in the GOP primary.

Democrats can't take the fall race for granted but Republicans have a steep challenge against Murphy. McMahon will need to run up a large margin in the 5th Congressional District, the most Republican of the districts in Connecticut, but that will be difficult since Murphy has represented that area since he was elected to Congress in 2006. We continue to rate the race as Democrat Favored.

In Florida, Rep. Connie Mack cruised to the GOP nomination with 59 percent of the vote over former Rep. Dave Weldon (20 percent) and veteran Mike McCalister (14 percent). Sen. Bill Nelson also turned back nominal primary opposition, but he'll have much more to worry from with Mack in November.

Posted by at August 17, 2012 9:32 AM
  

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