July 2, 2012

THERE IS NO AFGHANISTAN:

AFTER AMERICA: Will civil war hit Afghanistan when the U.S. leaves? (Dexter Filkins, JULY 9, 2012, The New Yorker)

The ethnic battle lines in Afghanistan have not changed. Pashtuns, who dominate both the government and the Taliban, are from the south; the ethnic minorities--Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and many others--live mainly in the north. The capital, Kabul, is multiethnic and the focal point of all political and military ambition.

In April, I drove to Khanabad, a rural district near the city of Kunduz, in northern Afghanistan. It's only in the past few months that a Westerner could venture there without protection. Three years ago, the area around Kunduz fell under the control of the Taliban, who collected taxes, maintained law and order, and adjudicated disputes. A panel of Taliban imams held trials in a local mosque. There was an Afghan government in the area, with a governor and a police force, but the locals regarded it as ineffectual and corrupt.

In the fall of 2009, the Americans stepped up their efforts to reinforce the Afghan government. American commandos swooped into villages almost every night, killing or carrying away insurgents. Local Taliban leaders--"shadow governors"--began disappearing. "Most of the Taliban governors lasted only a few weeks," a Khanabad resident, Ghulam Siddiq, told me. "We never got to know their names."

The most effective weapon against the Taliban were people like Mohammad Omar, the commander of a local militia. In late 2008, Omar was asked by agents with the National Directorate of Security (N.D.S.)--the Afghan intelligence agency--if he could raise a militia. It wasn't hard to do. Omar's brother Habibullah had been a lieutenant for Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, one of the leading commanders in the war against the Soviets, and a warlord who helped destroy Kabul during the civil war. The Taliban had killed Habibullah in 1999, and Omar jumped at the opportunity to take revenge. Using his brother's old contacts, he raised an army of volunteers from around Khanabad and began attacking the Taliban. He set up forces in a string of villages on the southern bank of the Khanabad River. "We pushed all the Taliban out," he told me.

The Taliban are gone from Khanabad now, but Omar and his fighters are not. Indeed, Omar's militia appears to be the only effective government on the south side of the Khanabad River. "Without Omar, we could never defeat the Taliban," a local police chief, Mohammad Sharif, said. "I've got two hundred men. Omar has four thousand."

The N.D.S. and American Special Forces have set up armed neighborhood groups like Omar's across Afghanistan. Some groups, like the Afghanistan Local Police, have official supervision, but others, like Omar's, are on their own. Omar insists that he and his men are not being paid by either the Americans or the Afghan government, but he appears to enjoy the support of both. His stack of business cards includes that of Brigadier General Edward Reeder, an American in charge of Special Forces in Afghanistan in 2009, when the Americans began counterattacking in Kunduz.

The militias established or tolerated by the Afghan and American governments constitute a reversal of the efforts made in the early years of the war to disarm such groups, which were blamed for destroying the country during the civil war. At the time, American officials wanted to insure that the government in Kabul had a monopoly on the use of force.

Kunduz Province is divided into fiefdoms, each controlled by one of the new militias. In Khanabad district alone, I counted nine armed groups. Omar's is among the biggest; another is led by a rival, on the northern bank of the Khanabad River, named Mir Alam. Like Omar, Alam was a commander during the civil war. He was a member of Jamiat-e-Islami. Alam and his men, who declined to speak to me, are said to be paid by the Afghan government.

As in the nineties, the militias around Kunduz have begun fighting each other for territory. They also steal, tax, and rape. "I have to give ten per cent of my crops to Mir Alam's men," a villager named Mohammad Omar said. (He is unrelated to the militia commander.) "That is the only tax I pay. The government is not strong enough to collect taxes." When I accompanied the warlord Omar to Jannat Bagh, one of the villages under his control, his fighters told me that Mir Alam's men were just a few hundred yards away. "We fight them whenever they try to move into our village," one of Omar's men said.

None of the militias I encountered appeared to be under any government supervision. In Aliabad, a town in the south of the province, a group of about a hundred men called the Critical Infrastructure Protection force had set up a string of checkpoints. Their commander, Amanullah Terling, another former Jamiat commander, said that his men were protecting roads and development projects. His checkpoints flew the flag of Jamiat-e-Islami. Terling's group--like dozens of other such units around the country--is an American creation. It appears to receive lots of cash but little direct supervision. "Once a month, an American drives out here in his Humvee with a bag of money," Terling said.

Together, the militias set up to fight the Taliban in Kunduz are stronger than the government itself. Local officials said that there were about a thousand Afghan Army soldiers in the province--I didn't see any--and about three thousand police, of whom I saw a handful. Some police officers praised the militias for helping bring order to Kunduz; others worried that the government had been eclipsed. "We created these groups, and now they are out of control," Nizamuddin Nashir, the governor of Khanabad, said. "The government does not collect taxes, but these groups do, because they are the men with the guns."

The confrontations between government forces and militias usually end with the government giving way. When riots broke out in February after the burning of Korans by American soldiers, an Afghan Army unit dispatched to the scene was blocked by Mir Alam's men. "I cannot count on the Army or the police here," Nashir said. "The police and most of the soldiers are cowards." He was echoing a refrain I heard often around the country. "They cannot fight."

Much of the violence and disorder in Kunduz, as elsewhere in Afghanistan, takes place beyond the vision of American soldiers and diplomats. German, Norwegian, and American soldiers are stationed in Kunduz, but, in the three days I spent there, I saw only one American patrol. The American diplomats responsible for Kunduz are stationed seventy-five miles away, in a heavily fortified base in Mazar-e-Sharif. When I met a U.S. official and mentioned the reconstituted militias once commanded by Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, the official did not know the name. "Keep in mind," he said, "I'm not a Central Asian expert."

Largely prohibited from venturing outside their compounds, many American officials exhibit little knowledge of events beyond the barricades. They often appear to occupy themselves with irrelevant activities such as filling out paperwork and writing cables to their superiors in the United States. Some of them send tweets--in English, in a largely illiterate country, with limited Internet usage. "Captain America ran the half marathon," a recent Embassy tweet said, referring to a sporting event that took place within the Embassy's protected area. In the early years of the war, diplomats were encouraged to leave their compounds and meet ordinary Afghans. In recent years, personal safety has come to overshadow all other concerns. On April 15th, when a group of Taliban guerrillas seized buildings in Kabul and started firing on embassies, the U.S. Embassy sent out an e-mail saying that the compound was "in lockdown." "The State Department has marginalized itself," an American civilian working for the military said.

The more knowledgeable American officials say they have a plan to deal with the militias: as the U.S. withdraws, the militias will be folded into the Afghan national-security forces or shut down. But exactly when and how this will happen is unclear, especially since the Afghan security forces are almost certain to shrink. "That is an Afghan government solution that the coming years will have to determine," Lieutenant General Daniel P. Bolger, the head of the NATO training mission, said.

Many Afghans fear that NATO has lost the will to control the militias, and that the warlords are reƫmerging as formidable local forces. Nashir, the Khanabad governor, who is the scion of a prominent family, said that the rise of the warlords was just the latest in a series of ominous developments in a country where government officials exercise virtually no independent authority. "These people do not change, they are the same bandits," he said. "Everything here, when the Americans leave, will be looted."

Nashir grew increasingly vehement. "Mark my words, the moment the Americans leave, the civil war will begin," he said. "This country will be divided into twenty-five or thirty fiefdoms, each with its own government."

And drones to keep each regime in line.

Posted by at July 2, 2012 7:09 PM
  

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