May 23, 2012


Why we should expect Obama to lose Florida in 2012 (Jamelle Bouie, 5/23/12, Washington Post)

The latest poll from Quinnipiac University shows President Obama with a six-point deficit in Florida, 41 percent to Mitt Romney's 47 percent. Romney also gets much better ratings on the economy -- 50 percent say that the Republican is better able to handle the economy, compared to 40 percent for Obama. Forty-four percent say that they approve of the president's job performance, and his unfavorables have risen to 50 percent.

Predictably, this poll has led to warnings of doom for President Obama. But I'm not too surprised by the outcome. Florida has only gone for the Democratic nominee in two of the last eight presidential elections -- Bill Clinton in 1996 with 48 percent of the vote, and Obama in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote. What's more, relative to their national vote totals, both presidents underperformed in Florida; Clinton by 1.2 percent and Obama by 1.9 percent.

Given Florida's demographics, it's not hard to understand why the Sunshine State is less-than-friendly territory for Democratic candidates. 

Posted by at May 23, 2012 3:31 PM

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