April 25, 2012

AND PLENTY OF TIME TO DITCH THE WAHOOS:

A Tight Race: Despite catering to his base, Romney enters general-election mode in pretty good shape. (Charlie Cook, April 23, 2012, National Journal)
 
The Republican presidential nomination is essentially settled. A wave of polls, focus groups, and other survey research is taking the temperature of the race, with certain clear themes emerging.

Even though presumptive nominee Mitt Romney has spent the last year and a half almost exclusively focused on currying favor with his party's conservative base--quite often antagonizing other voters, including independents and swing voters--this race is very close. The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows a lead for President Obama of 3.1 percentage points, 47.6 percent to 44.5 percent. The Huffpost Pollster estimate is 2.2 percentage points, 47 percent to 44.8 percent.

In a separate and slightly older national survey of likely voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Democratic Corps/Women's Voices and Women's Vote Action Fund, taken March 29-April 4, Obama led by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent. Presumably, as Romney shifts his messaging toward swing voters, other polls may begin to look like this one.

Posted by at April 25, 2012 5:04 AM
  

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