March 18, 2012

IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH DEMOGRAPHICS REVERSE THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE GENERATIONS:

In secular France, can faith carry the election? (Ségolène ALLEMANDOU, 3/16/12, France24)

At 57.2%, Catholics make up the majority of voters in France. Muslims (5%) form the second biggest religious group, followed by Protestants (2%) and Jews (0.6%). Some 30% of French voters describe themselves as having "no religion".

Claude Dargent specialises in research on French voting patterns and has published reports on both Muslim and Catholic voter behaviour ahead of next month's presidential election.

FRANCE 24: The Muslim electorate has expanded massively in the past decade. How do French Muslims tend to vote?

Claude Dargent: In 1997, Muslim voters in France made up only 0.7% of voters, whereas in 2007 [at the last presidential election] they had reached around 5%. This is because of the increasing numbers of Muslims on the electoral roll, most of them having been born into Muslim families of foreign origin.

French Muslims are largely left-leaning - 95% of them voted for [Socialist candidate] Ségolène Royal in the first round of the 2007 presidential election, while only 5% voted for [conservative, UMP party] Nicolas Sarkozy.

Around 75% of French Muslims are working class, but the French working class as a whole does not vote in the same way. In fact, they span left, right and far-right circles. Because of this comparison, we can deduce that French Muslims tend to vote left-wing because of their membership of a religious group rather than their social class.

F24: What about the Catholic vote?

C.D.: Practicing Catholics are five to six times more likely to vote right-wing than those who describe themselves as "without religion". In the first round of the 2007 election, some 49% of Catholics voted for Nicolas Sarkozy, against only 12% for Ségolène Royal. According to a January survey carried out by TNS-Sofrès for [Catholic weekly] Le Pèlerin, 50% of Catholics plan to vote for Sarkozy this time round while just 13% will support [Socialist candidate] François Hollande.

In a country where the young are Muslim and the old are Catholic, the former will be anti-socialist, after all, it will be their labor funding the leisure of the latter.


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Posted by at March 18, 2012 8:46 AM
  

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