February 19, 2012

PLEASE, JEB, SAVE US FROM OURSELVES:

GOP HEAVIES MAY SEEK NEW HORSE IF MITT BUCKED ON FEB. 28: 'If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate' -- Doing the Hail Mary math (MIKE ALLEN,  02/18/12, Politico)

Our friend handed us a printout of FEC deadlines for ballot access, with five of them circled and starred: California (March 23), Montana (March 12), New Jersey (April 2), New Mexico (March 16) and South Dakota (March 27). The point: Even after Feb. 28, it might be possible to assemble a Hail Mary candidacy that could garner enough delegates to force a CONTESTED convention (a different nuance than BROKERED, which implies that someone is in charge).

Under RNC rules, the delegate count builds slowly: just 15% before Super Tuesday, March 6; 19% through Super Tuesday (brings you to 34%); 17% in the rest of March (brings you to 51%); with 48% in April, May and June (21%, 12%, 15%).

Our friend said: "If somebody came on the scene that week after Super Tuesday with, 'I'm coming in. I'm taking a look at this,' there are enough delegates. He would suck all the oxygen out of the race. People wouldn't even give a s[***] who won on these other dates in March that are after Super Tuesday. I mean, seriously, who would care?  It would all be about a new savior."

The very reason that such scenarios are dismissed--they're just about politicos praying for some excitement in the process--is exactly why it would work, because it would be so exciting.  Jeb would dominate the news until the Summer, when politics ceases to exist for several months, and then you just have that Labor Day to Election Day tussle.  No one would even get a chance to be sick of him before the whole thing was over.
Posted by at February 19, 2012 10:05 AM
  

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