January 16, 2012
YOU CAN GET THOSE SWINGS IN THE PARTY OF FEELINGS, NOT THE PARTY OF THOUGHTS:
National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination (NATE SILVER, 1/16/12, NY Times)
Just how safe is a 19-point lead at this point in the campaign? Based on historical precedent, it is enough to all but assure that Mr. Romney will be the Republican nominee.I went through our database of past primary polls for the 16 competitive nomination races from 1972 (when the current primary system was adopted) to 2008. [...]The only cases where a candidate came from behind to win were in 1972, when Edmund S. Muskie had a narrow 2-point lead in the polls over Hubert H. Humphrey, but George McGovern, far back in the polls, went on to win the race, and 2008, when Hillary Clinton had a 9-point lead over Barack Obama after New Hampshire but lost the nomination to him.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 16, 2012 9:30 PM
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