January 16, 2012

YOU CAN GET THOSE SWINGS IN THE PARTY OF FEELINGS, NOT THE PARTY OF THOUGHTS:

National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination (NATE SILVER, 1/16/12, NY Times)

Just how safe is a 19-point lead at this point in the campaign? Based on historical precedent, it is enough to all but assure that Mr. Romney will be the Republican nominee.

I went through our database of past primary polls for the 16 competitive nomination races from 1972 (when the current primary system was adopted) to 2008. [...]

The only cases where a candidate came from behind to win were in 1972, when Edmund S. Muskie had a narrow 2-point lead in the polls over Hubert H. Humphrey, but George McGovern, far back in the polls, went on to win the race, and 2008, when Hillary Clinton had a 9-point lead over Barack Obama after New Hampshire but lost the nomination to him.

Posted by at January 16, 2012 9:30 PM
  

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