January 17, 2012
THE POINT BEING, NO REFORM IS NEEDED, JUST TINKERING:
Three Strikingly Different GOP Visions about Social Security Reform (Jeffrey Brown, 1/17/12, Forbes)
Governor Romney took the practical approach. After pointing out that he would protect everyone over the age of 55, he laid out two very specific changes to the benefit formula that would substantially reduce Social Security expenditures in the decades to come. The first change would change the way that initial retiree benefits are calculated. Under current law, benefits from one cohort of retirees to the next rise with average wages in the economy. Governor Romney suggested, instead, a plan similar to what Social Security policy experts call "progressive price indexing." This would continue to index starting benefits to wage growth for those at the bottom of the income distribution, but would index benefits at the top end of the income distribution to price inflation instead. Because prices tend to rise less quickly than wages, this would reduce expenditures relative to current law. The impact would be gradual - and thus the short-term cost savings would be limited, but over many decades can be quite substantial. Second, Governor Romney indicated a willingness to increase the full retirement age by one or two years. Importantly, increasing the full retirement age does not actually require that anyone work longer: rather, it simply moves the age at which one receives "full" benefits back by one to two years. Variants of both of these reform proposals have been floating around Washington over the past decade. In essence, this is a fiscally responsible approach that recognizes there is no pain-free way to fill in the fiscal gap. While this is good fiscal policy, whether or not it is good politics remains to be seen.
The danger is how easy it is top fix the funding problem. It mitigates against genuine reform, making to too easy to settle for the Reagansque Second Way.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 17, 2012 4:55 PM
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