January 22, 2012

DONE AND DUSTED:

The hangover: America is recovering from the debt bust faster than European countries. Why? (The Economist, Jan 21st 2012)

Government borrowing soared everywhere after 2008 as government deficits ballooned. But in America the swelling of the public balance-sheet has mirrored a shrinking of private ones. Every category of private debt--financial, corporate and household--has fallen as a share of GDP since 2008. The financial sector's debt is now at its 2000 level. Corporate indebtedness, never very high, has shrunk. So, more importantly, has household debt. America's ratio of household debt to income is down by 15 percentage points from its peak in 2008, after rising by over 30 percentage points in the eight preceding years. McKinsey reckons America's households are between a third and halfway through their debt-reduction process. They think the household-debt hangover could end by mid-2013.

In Europe private debt has fallen much less and in some cases even risen. In Britain the financial sector's debts have grown since 2008. In Spain corporate debt, far higher as a share of GDP than in most rich countries, has barely budged. But the biggest difference is among households. Even countries which saw the biggest surges in household debt during the bubble era, such as Britain and Spain, have scarcely seen a dent since 2008. McKinsey's analysts reckon it will take British households up to a decade to work off their debt burdens.

Two of the biggest variables that will further distance us from other developed nations: (1) we're the only one that will get a big Peace Dividend; and (2) we're the only one that will welcome a big new wave of immigration.

Posted by at January 22, 2012 7:48 AM
  

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