December 6, 2011

WELL, THAT WAS EASY ENOUGH:

Chapman University predicts Obama election loss (Martin Wisckol, 12/06/11, OC Register)

Chapman's model, which takes into account party but not the candidates, is based on three variables:

    Approval rating of the incumbent party's sitting president on year prior to the election.
    Percentage change in real GDP in the election year.
    Percentage change in employment in the election year.

Chapman predicts 2.3 percent GDP growth next year and 1.1 percent job growth.

All that adds up to Obama losing by 8.1 percent.

Posted by at December 6, 2011 6:31 PM
  

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