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The truth about English football: Studying football helps us see why the English are always beating themselves up, and why they shouldn't (Simon Kuper, 9/30/11, Financial Times)

The sports economist Stefan Szymanski and I argued in our book Soccernomics that it's silly to expect England to win World Cups. This half of a mid-sized island is smaller than the historically dominant football nations (Germany, Italy, Brazil, Argentina and France), and no more experienced. The sociologist Stephen Wagg was right when he said that, "In reality, England is a country like many others, and the England football team is a football team like many others." In fact, Stefan Szymanski and I calculated that England's usual position as about the 10th best team on earth means it has overachieved slightly, relative to its limited resources.

True, England won the World Cup in 1966 - a perennial touchstone for disappointed nostalgics - but given that it hosted the tournament, and that home advantage is worth two-thirds of a goal per game in international football, this was hardly surprising.

We're now updating Soccernomics, and have made an interesting discovery about Capello: he's England's most successful manager ever. He has won 26 of his 39 matches with England, with a winning percentage of 67 per cent. None of his predecessors exceeded 60 per cent. He's not a flop. In short, foreigners are not England's problem - they are the solution. Capello and the Premiership's foreign players bring continental knowhow to insular English football.

It's often said that England lose because there are too few Englishmen in the Premier League. In fact, the reverse is true: England lose in part because there are too many Englishmen in the Premier League. This is the world's toughest league. Players at Chelsea or Manchester United have to peak every week - they cannot save themselves for the national team. They therefore often play for England while exhausted. England would probably do better if it exported players to calmer leagues, like Montenegro's.

It's England's bad luck that big tournaments start in June, the time of maximum exhaustion for players from the Premier League. Recall that England's star, Wayne Rooney, has played two World Cups half-fit. As his teammate Steven Gerrard wrote after another disappointing tournament: "The truth was that England were knackered at Euro 2004 ... A long, hard season took a terrible toll." I found similar claims in several English players' autobiographies.

England's peculiar scoring record in big tournaments also suggests player exhaustion. In every World Cup, most goals are scored in the second half of matches. That is natural, because after half-time, players tire, teams start chasing goals, and gaps open up in defences. But England, in their past six big tournaments, scored 25 of their 38 goals before half-time. The team's record in crucial games is even more stark: in matches in which England were eliminated from tournaments, they scored eight of their nine goals before half-time. England tend to perform like a cheap battery.

Posted by oj at October 8, 2011 8:16 AM
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