THERE ARE NO SAFE SEATS:

Rethinking the 2012 Landscape: Voters are taking out their anger at Democrats, even in a reliably Democratic district. (Josh Kraushaar, September 14, 2011, National Journal)

Look at the congressional generic ballot, where Democrats traditionally hold an advantage even in lean years. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Republicans holding a 47 percent to 41 percent edge, the largest margin for Republicans since 1996, when the question was first asked. When Republicans picked up 63 House seats in 2010, Democrats actually held a 46 percent to 44 percent advantage on the poll's generic ballot.

Do a deeper dive into some of the district-wide polling and early vote numbers, and things get even scarier for the president's party. Discontent with the president is at the heart of Republican Bob Turner's surprisingly strong campaign in New York for the seat based in Queens and Brooklyn. Within the district, Obama's favorability rating is at 43 percent, with a whopping 68 percent of independents holding an unfavorable view of the president, according to last week's Siena poll. More than one-third of Democratic voters view him unfavorably. [...]

In the Senate, Democrats are defending seats in much more Republican territory than New York City - in Nebraska (Ben Nelson), Montana (Jon Tester), and Missouri (Claire McCaskill). If a highly-regarded Democratic recruit can't compete in a district Obama nearly carried, what does that say about Rep. Shelley Berkley's prospects against Sen. Dean Heller (or Obama's in the battleground state)? In the House, 50 Democrats hold more Republican seats than New York 9 - even after last year's GOP landslide.

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