September 14, 2011

OTHER THAN THAT IT WAS A TRIUMPH:

An Economy In Trouble: Notwithstanding the billions of dollars spent, the economy did not get back to its 1929 level in FDR's first two terms. (AMITY SHLAES , 9/13/11, WSJ)

Mr. Hiltzik presents the New Deal as an adventure made all the more thrilling by the uncertainty of its outcome--"a work in progress from its beginning to end"--and one that sustained democracy by keeping America from social and economic collapse. He believes that the good intentions of the New Dealers offset any damage done by the improvisational aspect of the programs: "The remedies could not wait for a final diagnosis," as he puts it. Roosevelt's troops included many true believers in the cause who brooked no criticism from doubters. Prickly Harry Hopkins, said by Mr. Hiltzik to be "the least cynical or defeatist member of the FDR's inner circle," countered attacks on his jobs program by saying that "dumb people criticize something they do not understand."

Notwithstanding the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of regulations enacted, the economy did not get back to its 1929 level in Roosevelt's first two terms. The Dow Jones Industrial Average likewise did not return to its pre-Crash level. Ten years into the Depression, total hours worked by the American labor force were a full 20% below the 1929 level. When it came to job creation overall, the New Dealers lost the battle: The unemployment data gathered so meticulously by Perkins and those who followed her averaged well into the double digits for Roosevelt's first decade. Even when temporary make-work jobs are counted, New Deal unemployment only occasionally moved into the single digits before World War II.

Mr. Hiltzik scarcely addresses this failure. He even more or less denies it by providing snapshots of year-over-year growth that seem impressive until you recall the low base from which they start. He also seems to mock efforts to understand why the New Deal failed. The scholar Robert Higgs has shown that Roosevelt's aggressive antibusiness policies caused companies to hunker down rather than start hiring, but when Mr. Hiltzik discusses business confidence he adds scoffing quotation marks around the phrase, as if business confidence is of little importance in economic matters.

The author also neglects the Wagner Act of 1935, which gave unprecedented clout to labor, inaugurating the era of the sit-down strike and the closed shop. The act drove up labor costs, spooking employers and discouraging them from hiring. This effect "The New Deal" obliviously marches past, banner waving. Mr. Hiltzik's chronicle would have been more effective if cast in a less triumphal mode, acknowledging the many ways in which the New Deal failed the economy it was trying to save.


Posted by at September 14, 2011 7:09 AM
  

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