July 20, 2011

WIN, PLACE OR GO HOME?:

T-Paw's Iowa Power Play: Can he place first or second in the Hawkeye State? (Katrina Trinko , 7/20/11, National Review Online)

"He needs a first- or second-place finish," says Craig Robinson, a former Iowa GOP political director and the editor of TheIowaRepublican.com. "Third place has been a deadly spot for people to finish in the straw poll. If you look back four years ago, Sam Brownback finished third and didn't make it to the caucus. If you go back [to 2000], Elizabeth Dole didn't make it to the caucus stage." [...]

[P]awlenty still has one advantage: his Iowa organization.

"His campaign has made a huge investment in grassroots organization, building the apparatus that it takes to actually motivate people . . . to go to Ames," says Robinson, noting that Pawlenty has "the best-organized campaign in the state," with a larger staff than any of the other candidates.

"He doesn't clearly have the momentum," Robinson acknowledges. "But as long as the people already signed up get to Ames, I think he could finish well. I think he could surprise."

An Iowa Republican operative thinks that Pawlenty's "superior" organization could help him leapfrog over Michele Bachmann and get the approximately 3,500 votes needed for an Ames victory. The operative is dubious that Bachmann could round up enough voters.

The operative notes that in 2008, Mitt Romney's centralized campaign won the day. "I bet Romney could tell you 95 percent of the voters he had by name. [Mike] Huckabee could probably tell you 5 percent," the operative says. "That's because Huckabee had the homeschool groups organizing themselves, [and the] Bible studies, churches, but never really put it down on paper. Bachmann's running that kind of campaign, and it's risky, but she's a candidate who could do it if she wanted to."



Posted by at July 20, 2011 6:40 AM
  

blog comments powered by Disqus
« YET THE LEFT WANTS TO ABORT AND THE RIGHT WANTS TO CLOSE THE BORDER: | Main | AFTER THE COUNTER-REFORMATION, THE REFORMED CHURCH: »