July 10, 2011

LESS DRAMA, MORE VOTES:

The Governors’ Advantage in Presidential Races Is Bigger Than You Thought (NATE SILVER, 6/15/11, NY Times)

It’s reasonably well known that governors have a more successful record than senators when it comes to winning presidential nominations. Throughout American history, about twice as many governors as senators have been chosen to be standard bearers by the major parties, even though at any given moment there are only half as many sitting governors as sitting senators.

The advantage may be even more powerful than you think. Not only are governors more likely to win nomination, they also do better than senators even after accounting for their polling. That is, if you take a governor who is polling at 10 percent and a senator who is polling at 10 percent in a race, and the candidates seem about equal in most other respects, the governor is more likely to outperform his polling and win the nomination. Governors likewise hold an advantage over members of the House of Representatives and over holders of most other elected offices — everyone except presidents and vice presidents.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 10, 2011 1:57 PM
  
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