LET A HELLFIRE BE THE SPARK:

This Syrian tinderbox could set fire to the region: Assad's regime threatens dire consequences for the bloodshed in Jisr al-Shughour. They may not be restricted to Syria's borders (Simon Tisdall, 6/12/11, guardian.co.uk)

Carnage in Jisr al-Shughour has taken the Syrian crisis to a new level, even as Bashar al-Assad's regime descends to new depths. Three risks now stand out. The first and most obvious is vicious regime retaliation against residents of the north-western town where 120 army and security personnel are said to have been killed. The second is the very real spectre of civil war raised by this escalation. Third, and most dangerous for Israel and the west, are growing, linked attempts by the regime and its ally Iran to externalise the conflict.

Syrian ministers are threatening dire consequences for the Jisr al-Shughour deaths, which they blame (without offering evidence) on armed gangs. Their alarm is justified in one respect: this turmoil threatens the very existence of the Assad clan's ascendancy. Of the more than 1,000 civilians killed since the uprising began in March, the largest number – at least 418 according to a new Human Rights Watch report – died in the south-western Daraa governorate.

This week's events in Jisr al-Shughour, involving organised armed resistance and well-directed counter-attacks against regime targets, are of a different order of seriousness to Daraa's peaceful pro-democracy protests. In Daraa, the report says, "systematic killings and torture" by security forces probably amounted to crimes against humanity. So what untold horrors may be in store for Jisr al-Shughour residents, where the stakes are so much higher and where the same media curbs prevent independent scrutiny?

This chill moment is reminiscent of the day in July 1995 when Serbian forces brushed aside UN peacekeepers and seized the besieged Bosnian town of Srebrenica. Europe held its breath, fearing the worst. What transpired was even more awful than most could have imagined.

Assad should know by now that violence added to violence is not the answer. Amazingly, he does not.

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