T-PAW REX:

Tim Pawlenty's gambit: The Minnesota Republican is focusing on the issues that helped the GOP win in 2010 (Doyle McManus, May 8, 2011, LA Times)

[T]he decidedly bland and uncharismatic Pawlenty stands a good chance of being the Republicans' next candidate for president. And he might even turn out to be a pretty good nominee, with his message focused steadfastly on the issues that helped Republicans win last year's congressional elections: low taxes, spending cuts, less regulation.

How could Pawlenty, who currently gets the support of roughly 5% of Republican voters on a good day, win the nomination? Mostly by process of elimination.

Every potential Republican candidate has flaws. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the putative front-runner, is distrusted by many conservatives for his moderate past, especially for passing a healthcare law that looks suspiciously like "Obamacare."

Some of the most intriguing potential candidates — real estate mogul Donald Trump, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — draw negative reactions from big chunks of the electorate. Some of the most electable — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels — sound as if they don't plan to run. By showing up in South Carolina, Pawlenty showcased one of his main strengths at the moment: He's actually running.

So despite the long list of potential names on the ballot, the race could quickly turn into a two-man contest, Romney versus Pawlenty. And in that matchup, Pawlenty stands a good chance of winning as the most plausible candidate acceptable to conservatives.

Pawlenty's more interesting than he looks. "He was the most conservative governor we've ever had," said Lawrence R. Jacobs of the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota. Jacobs, who's not a Republican, gives Pawlenty credit for governing as "a thoughtful conservative," a policy wonk who reduced spending on healthcare through programs that pushed hospitals and other providers to become more efficient.

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