IF NOTHING ELSE, HE HAS ONE EYE:

Can Tim Pawlenty win the GOP presidential nomination? (Brian Montopoli, 5/23/11, CBS News)

Pawlenty's image is one of the nice guy down the street - the solid family man with the firm handshake who might sell you a very reasonable insurance policy. He tried, tentatively, to change that perception as he traveled the country laying the groundwork for his campaign, offering up more forceful and provocative rhetoric that seemed outside his comfort zone. But it didn't really take, and by the time Pawlenty appeared in Iowa to formally announce his presidential campaign Monday, he had settled on his campaign theme: I may not raise your blood pressure, but at least I won't lie to you.

"Fluffy promises of hope and change don't buy our groceries, make our mortgage payments, put gas in our cars, or pay for our children's clothes," he said, in an obvious shot at Mr. Obama. "So, in my campaign, I'm going to take a different approach. I am going to tell you the truth."

Pawlenty went on to back up that claim by calling for reforms to entitlement programs and opposing ethanol subsidies, an position not likely to be popular in Iowa. "Conventional wisdom says you can't talk about ethanol in Iowa or Social Security in Florida or financial reform on Wall Street," he said. "But someone has to say it. Someone has to finally stand up and level with the American people. Someone has to lead."

Pawlenty's presentation wasn't particularly dynamic. But his Minnesota-nice persona may play well with Iowa caucus voters, who may respond positively to Pawlenty's straightforward, flash-free delivery.

Pawlenty's gotten two big gifts in recent weeks: First, 2008 Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee decided to pass on the race, greatly improving Pawlenty's chances in Iowa. And then Mitch Daniels, perhaps Pawlenty's biggest challenger in the race to become the GOP establishment's preferred alternative to Mitt Romney, did as well.

Romney is unlikely to make a big push in Iowa, where he was embarrassed by Huckabee in the 2008 cycle. And likely GOP candidate Jon Huntsman appears poised to essentially skip it. That leaves the door open to Pawlenty to take the caucuses - and get a big boost in media coverage, donations and momentum if he does.

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