March 23, 2011

TIM'S PLACE:

The case for Tim Pawlenty (Chris Cillizza, 3/22/11, Washington Post)

Everything to everyone: Usually trying to be all things to all people is a recipe for political disaster. But, in Pawlenty’s case it may well be an advantage. Pawlenty isn’t likely to be the first choice of any of the GOP’s disparate interest groups but there isalso no group that is adamantly opposed to the idea of him as the nominee. And, a look back at the last two Republican presidential nominees — George W. Bush and John McCain — reveals that the party tends to pick the person who is able to appeal to the broadest number of constituencies within the party rather than the person who embodies the ideal pick of a single constituency group. Pawlenty, at the moment, is lots of peoples’ second choice. As the field narrows — and it will narrow — Pawlenty is likely to pick up supporters of other candidates because he is good — if not great — on the issues that matter most to them.

* An early state path: Winning in Iowa or New Hampshire — or, ideally, both — is absolutely essential for a lesser known candidate like Pawlenty to make a real run at the nomination. Lucky for him, he has a plausible case for why he can be competitive in both states, a case that many other candidates in the field (or soon to be in the field) simply can’t make. Pawlenty is the only candidate likely to run who has represented a state that borders Iowa . That geographical proximity will allow him to effectively make the case that he knows the worries and dreams of Hawkeye State Republicans best. In New Hampshire, Pawlenty’s image as an average Joe who happens to love ice hockey — Pawlenty was featured on skates in the video announcing his exploratory committee — should play well too. Pawlenty has already seen some results, in fact, in the Granite State; a recent independent poll showed him in third place behind only former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who is the clear favorite in new Hampshire in 2012, and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.


Posted by at March 23, 2011 2:41 PM
  

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