BECAUSE JAPAN WAS A DEVELOPED NATION WHEN IT BEGAN ITS DECLINE...:

Abortions give rise to Asia’s ‘lost boy’ generation (AFP, 3/20/11)

The phenomenon was first spotted in South Korea in the early 1990s, when the sex ratio at birth (SRB) — typically 105 male births to every 100 female births — rose to 125 in some cities.

Similar rises in male births were seen in China, “complicated by the one-child policy, which has undoubtedly contributed to the steady increase in the reported SRB from 106 in 1979, to 111 in 1990, 117 in 2001 and 121 in 2005,” said the study.

India has seen “sex ratios as high as 125 in Punjab, Delhi and Gujarat in the north but normal sex ratios of 105 in the southern and eastern states of Kerala and Andhra Pradesh,” it added.

In parts of China where a second child is allowed, after a daughter is the first born, the SRB for the second is 143, suggesting that many choose to abort a second girl foetus in favour of trying again for a boy.

Estimates of China’s actual population difference in 2005 pointed to 1.1 million excess males, with men under 20 exceeding the number of females by around 32 million, said the study led by Therese Hesketh, University College London Centre for International Health and Development.

“These men will be unable to marry, in societies where marriage is regarded as virtually universal, and where social status and acceptance depend, in large part, on being married and creating a new family,” said the authors.

Referred to in China as “guang gun,” meaning “bare branches,” these men are presumed to be unable to bear fruit by coupling and raising a family.

“In China and parts of India the sheer numbers of unmated men are a further cause for concern,” said the study.

“Because they may lack a stake in the existing social order, it is feared that they will become bound together in an outcast culture, turning to antisocial behaviour and organised crime, thereby threatening societal stability and security.”

...parents had time to develop a preference for girls (or at least neutrality on the question). After all, your son isn't going to take care of you when you're old and alone. A daughter might.

But India and China are going to go into decline before ever achieving advanced status and before they have complex social welfare nets, meaning there'll be no one to take care of the elderly.

Posted by oj at March 20, 2011 4:26 PM
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