AND IF THE DEMOCRATS FOCUS ON THE TEA PARTY...:

Why Democrats Should Fear a Government Shutdown: Beltway wisdom suggests a budget stoppage would be a boon to the Democrats and a disaster for the GOP, but David A. Graham says not so fast—Boehner is no Gingrich, and Obama's no Clinton. (David A. Graham, 2/28/11, Daily Beast)

While Democrats might be justly wary of taking advice from their opponents, here are five reasons things might play out more to Republicans’ advantage than expected.

1. The public is thirsty for cuts.

It’s tough to quantify, but even Democrats acknowledge that the desire for cuts to the federal government is strong. That’s why moderate Senate Democrats—notably Missouri’s Claire McCaskill, who faces a tough reelection campaign in 2012—have been leaning on their leadership to make concessions. But liberals maintain that while voters may voice support for cuts in the abstract, they won’t feel the same way when those cuts become concrete (a January Gallup poll, for example, showed a majority of Americans backed cuts to foreign aid, but not seven other areas of discretionary spending). [...]

2. There’s no Newt Gingrich.

After he led Republicans to victory in 1994 midterm elections, Gingrich came out against Clinton with guns blazing. By the shutdown, the public had already begun to see him as petulant. Boehner, by contrast, has consciously avoided styling himself as the chief of the opposition, as Peter Boyer reported in December. What’s more, he enjoys a much higher favorable vs. unfavorable rating. Boehner’s low-key demeanor and repeated opposition to closing the government would make it hard for Democrats to pin a shutdown on anyone in particular. "The only thing that's missing right now is the Newt Gingrich-type foil,” says Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and former spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “Gingrich's petulance is what drove it the last time around. The Tea Party could play that role—too strident for the American people." But pinning blame on a diffuse group of lesser-known representatives isn’t easy.

...then the GOP is the compromise between them.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 6, 2011 9:44 AM