February 24, 2011

ASSUMING THE NOMINEE IS MITCH OR T-PAW...:

D.C., Hawaii Still Most Approving of Obama; All States Decline: Approval is higher than average in 12 states plus D.C., lower than average in 18 states (Frank Newport, 2/23/11, Gallup)

President Obama's average job approval rating fell from 58% to 47% between 2009 and 2010. This nationwide average obscures significant differences across the 50 states of the Union. Obama's average job approval in 2010 ranged from about two-thirds approval in one state (Hawaii) to well under one-third approval in another (Wyoming). More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18 other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states.

A look at the 20 states in which Obama's approval rating is within three points of the national average may well provide a preview of where the most intense campaigning will occur in the coming 2012 presidential election. Most presidential elections are fought over the so-called swing states, whose voters can tilt enough in one political direction or the other to make their state competitive. Obama's 2010 presidential approval ratings would suggest that states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada -- all of which have average Obama approval ratings within one point of the national average -- may once again be the battlegrounds of the coming election.


...the UR might not even contest NH.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 24, 2011 6:46 AM
blog comments powered by Disqus
« WHEN XENOPHOBIA TRUMPS IDEOLOGY: | Main | JUST LIKE THE GREAT DEPRESSION: »