HOW MANY PLAGUES THIS TIME?:

Egypt's Day of Anger (Khairi Abaza, 1/27/11, National Interest)

The Egyptian regime is in a most precarious position, and it now faces a lose-lose proposition. If the police continue the excessive use of force and quash the protests, the people’s hatred of the regime and its forces will only increase. If the army attempts to put down the protests, that hatred will be directed toward the armed forces. Since the bloodless military coup of 1952, the army has been the backbone of the regime and the guardian of its political order. As an institution, it does not get involved in the daily functioning of the state, yet its influence is felt at all levels, beginning with the office of president. Since 1953, all four Egyptian presidents have come from and been backed by the military, which has consistently guarded the autocratic order.

At nearly sixty years old, the military-backed regime has mastered the art of survival. Through skillful maneuvering, it has reinvented itself several times through cosmetic changes. In the late 1970s, the regime shifted shape and ideology from that of a single-party socialist government to a nominally multiparty system with a mixed economy. From no freedom of speech, Cairo introduced a system with a margin of freedom of speech. These “democratic” reforms were not meant to start a genuine democratic process, but rather to allow dissenters to vent their anger.

But today’s protests are breaking the social contract between the regime and the people. Even if the regime succeeds in crushing the protests, things will not remain the same. The regime will have to offer some changes, as it has in the past, but none of its previous cosmetic changes came about as a result of such widespread protests. Any token changes will only spur political frustrations, and prepare the country for another uprising.

Will Cairo follow Tehran’s path in violently crushing the Green Movement protests of June 2009? Will it cling to power until the country falls into chaos? Or will it engage the opposition and work with it to help create a new social contract? Representative democracy will not come about in Egypt overnight, but if it is inevitable, the regime must work with the people to define the rules of the game, and lay the groundwork for a peaceful political transition.