FEAR OF A BLACK SCARF:

Saudi-Syrian deal still likely, analysts say: The nomination of Mikati as PM-designate means agreement over tribunal on horizon (Michael Bluhm, 1/27/11, Daily Star)

The nomination of Najib Mikati as prime minister-designate signals that a Saudi-Syrian deal remains near to blunt the crisis over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, a number of analysts said Wednesday.

A politician and businessman as shrewd as Mikati would not have allowed the March 8 political alliance to name him unless he had received assurances from high-ranking Saudis that the kingdom was still willing to reach an agreement on the tribunal, said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

“Talking is still the preferred way forward,” Salem said. “Najib wouldn’t have [accepted the post] without some sense from Saudi Arabia that, ‘We can talk.’ … He’s banking on the fact that, in the region, all of those parties seemed to have felt that there was a negotiated way out of this. Regional players feel that finding a negotiated settlement is preferable. Regional players know that they don’t want a Sunni-Shiite war in Lebanon.”