November 1, 2010


All Politics Is National (Jeremy P. Jacobs, November 1, 2010Hotline)

There is plenty of respected poll data suggesting this has become a nationalized election. A Gallup survey conducted between October 28 to 31 found that a sizable plurality of Americans -- 41 percent -- said that national issues have the biggest influence on their vote. Similarly, a Pew Research Center survey released Sunday found that 35 percent of likely voters said national issues are having the most influence on them -- the highest percentage for a midterm election in more than 10 years. (The next closest margin in a Pew survey -- 34 percent -- came in 2006, another nationalized wave election that swept Democrats to congressional majorities.)

And even though some pundits have hedged their bets on what turnout tomorrow will look like, we already have a pretty good sense of the who will be showing up at the polls. Both the Pew Research survey and Gallup show there's a massive enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, which are fueling the size of the wave.

"Fully 70 percent of Republicans have given a lot of thought to this election, the highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles," the Pew Research Center wrote. "And the differential between Republicans and Democrats is larger than ever previously recorded."

Similarly, Gallup found that the GOP enjoys a whopping 15 percent advantage among likely voters -- 55 percent to 40 percent. Gallup also found that 75 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican were 'absolutely certain' they would vote, compared to 68 percent of Democrats.

"While these figures are not the only indicator of relative turnout strength," Gallup wrote, "the record-high seven-point gap between the parties is strongly indicative of a relative surge in GOP turnout."

This goes a long way toward explaining why Democrats have been privately pessimistic about some races, despite their candidates running tied in polls. It also underscores why Senate races in Colorado, Washington and even California are looking more favorable for Republicans than some polls would suggest. If a Democratic incumbent is tied or currently behind -- like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) or Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), chances are they could lose by at least several points, if the Gallup/Pew turnout gap is accurate.

...the White House has the UR parading across America to remind voters that Reublicans just want to rein him in.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 1, 2010 1:35 PM
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