October 4, 2010

TILT!:

Morning Jay: Special 'State of the Race' Edition! (Jay Cost, October 4, 2010, Weekly Standard)

The following is an average of the independent vote in the generic ballot polls in the RealClearPolitics average:

This is a major problem for the Democratic party. It is averaging less than one out of three independent/unaffiliated voters. Importantly, all of these polls indicate that party voters have generally sorted themselves out – Republican voters have already broken to Republicans, Democrats to Democrats. Most of the undecided voters at this point are independents.

It’s hard to say how the remaining independents will finally break, though I think the best case scenario for the Democrats is that they break evenly between the two parties. The worst case would be if they break 9:1 or thereabouts for the Republicans. My guess is that the remaining independents break roughly as the decided ones have broken, on about a 4:3 basis toward the GOP.

This would create a result among independent voters that is basically indistinguishable from 1994 – about 56 percent to the Republicans, 40 percent to the Democrats, and a smattering to third-party candidates. By the way, this is also about the inverse of how independents broke in 2006.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 4, 2010 6:35 AM
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