October 24, 2010

THEY EVEN LEAD AMONG "REGISTERED"?:

Ground War More Intense Than 2006, Early Voting More Prevalent (Pew Research, 10/21/10)

[A] considerably greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats still fall into the likely voter category. Moreover, the new survey shows that Democrats have lost ground among all voters: Currently, 46% of registered voters favor the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 42% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. In early September, 44% backed the Republican while 47% supported the Democratic candidate.

When the current survey is narrowed to those most likely to vote, the GOP holds a double-digit advantage – 50% to 40%. In early September, Republicans held a seven-point lead among likely voters (50% to 43%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 13-18 among 1,797 registered voters, including 1,354 likely voters, finds more ominous signs for Democrats. First, the growing popularity of early voting means that Democrats have less time to make up ground. The survey finds that about a quarter (27%) of voters nationally, including 52% of voters in the West, say they plan to vote before Election Day or have already voted. Republicans (29%) and Democrats (28%) are equally likely to say they plan to vote early or have already voted. At a comparable point in the 2006 midterm, 18% said they would be early voters.

Second, while the parties’ voter mobilization efforts are well underway at this stage of the campaign, there is no indication that Democrats are making more headway on these efforts than are Republicans. [...]

Republicans hold a 12-point edge among likely voters in the most competitive districts in the nation, and have a bigger lead in safe Republican districts (27 points) than Democrats have in safe Democratic districts (10 points).

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Posted by Orrin Judd at October 24, 2010 8:01 AM
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