October 8, 2010
RIPE FOR THE TAKING:
Can statistics revive Liverpool like Red Sox? (Stefan Szymanski, 08.10.10, Evening Standard)
As everyone on Merseyside can now tell you, the Red Sox had failed to win a World Series, and languished in the shadow of rival New York Yankees for more than 80 years before that. The new owners believed that there are systematic patterns in baseball - just like the systematic patterns you might see in the financial markets - and that careful analysis might not only reveal the patterns but enable you to exploit unnoticed opportunities.Bill James and a team of analysts collaborated with the general manager Theo Epstein and manager (coach) Terry Francona to identify innovations that might yield a competitive advantage. But unlike Beane, they also had the money. Indeed, they made sure that the Red Sox were spending nearly as much as the Yankees. And with that combination of financial commitment and analysis, they won two World Series - in 2004 and 2007 - and the undying gratitude of Red Sox fans.
Can they repeat this at Liverpool? Sceptics are already arguing that the financial commitment required is too great, and that football is not like baseball. But in its glory years, the Liverpool philosophy was not so different. It has always been one of the biggest spenders but insiders never thought that it was this that gave them edge.
Graeme Souness, speaking in 1990, said: "What Liverpool have that other clubs do not is continuity, and that stems from a set of volumes stored at the ground and kept up to date without fail every day. It is the football bible as far as the Anfield backroom staff are concerned and contains the answer to almost every problem and every situation which could arise in the day-to-day running of a successful club. Every detail is noted, from the temperature and ground conditions to the physical and mental state of the players.
"Injuries are logged, how and why as well as how it responded to treatment. There are volumes and volumes, maintained ever since Joe Fagan first introduced them under Bill Shankly."
The boot room once made Liverpool Europe's most powerful team; somewhere in the managerial revolutions of the early Nineties, it was lost. Maybe John Henry and co can restore it.
The current squad has the best ghoal scorer in the world--Fernando Torres--but he can't stay healthy. Despite that, they were offered enormous sums of money for him this Summer. Had they sold him and used the money to buy depth they'd be in much better shape now. Red Sox ownership will bring the revolution the game has been waiting for.
MORE:
Billy Beane: The number-cruncher whose methods could revolutionise Liverpool: His approach to stats helped the Red Sox find success. He tells Glenn Moore it would work in football too (Glenn Moore, 8 October 2010, Independent)
Speaking exclusively to The Independent, Beane said: "You would have a hard time finding any major sport in the world which is not using metrics in some way. Performances in baseball are much more easily measured than in soccer but each sport has a metric which is relevant, it is identifying it. Basketball is much more similar to soccer and many NBA teams are using metrics."Beane became a fan of English football some years ago when he watched a match while in London and now rises at 5.30am each weekend to follow the Premier League on TV. He has worked with Spurs, is friends with Chelsea's performance director Mike Forde, and has had discussions with young managers like Aidy Bothroyd and veterans such as Sir Alex Ferguson. Confidentiality meant he could not go into details, but he said the use of metrics is growing in the English game.
It could increase dramatically with the Red Sox involvement at Anfield but before Liverpool fans despair Beane had only praise for NESV. He said: "I know John Henry and the ownership group, they are one of the brightest, most innovative and successful sports franchises in the US. Boston is not a dissimilar franchise to Liverpool. It has a passionate fanbase and a history. They combined efficiency on the field with a great team and incredibly increased the awareness of the brand. The Red Sox are as popular in the States as the [New York] Yankees, which once seemed impossible. They have been good for the game."
