IT'S A TWO-FER:

A dramatic turn in West Virginia (Clive Crook, October 17 2010, Financial Times)

If West Virginia sends a Republican to replace Byrd in Washington, that would almost be a landslide election in itself. Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts would seem mundane by comparison. But if it does this by rejecting not just any Democrat (Mr Brown’s opponent was feeble) but an unusually popular one, something even odder is going on.

In one way, what West Virginia is saying makes sense. The state may like Mr Manchin and even prefer him to Mr Raese, but at the same time it wants to stop the Obama project. The president’s job-approval rating in West Virginia stands in sharp contrast to Mr Manchin’s: by roughly two to one, voters disapprove, a much worse showing than the national average. Mr Raese’s catchphrase is “Don’t send a rubber stamp to Washington.”

West Virginians know that Republican control of Congress would not mean Republican control of the country. That is a separate issue which does not come up until 2012. The voters’ calculations might be different then, even if nothing else changes. Next month, voters can aim to stop Barack Obama in his tracks without putting the other side in command, and that, apparently, is what they are minded to do.

At the same time, as a bonus, they would retain their popular governor. Mr Manchin did not resign to run for the Senate. West Virginians like the idea of keeping him in charge in Charleston. Byrd’s fleecing of other states’ taxpayers notwithstanding, a good governor makes a bigger difference to most US citizens than a good senator. Refusing to elect Mr Manchin to the Senate would be a kind of compliment.

Or Mr. Manchin could just caucus with the GOP.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 20, 2010 6:29 AM