...AND REDDER...:

2012 map takes unfamiliar shape (Maggie Haberman and Shira Toeplitz, October 9, 2010, Politico)

If the newest Census Bureau estimates stay close to form, President Barack Obama’s reelection roadmap could look considerably different than the one that took him to the White House in 2008.

Back then, he won 68 percent of the electoral vote — 365 electoral votes in all — powered by wins in eight of the nation’s 10 most populous states. But population growth and shifts of residents between states will impact the way electoral votes are reapportioned in advance of the 2012 elections, and it appears more votes are moving toward states that he lost and away from the ones he won the first time around.

Between reapportionment and the erosion of support in certain states and regions where he had success two years ago, the 2012 path to victory could become more complicated.

“It's certainly hard to argue that the shift ... is anything but [a problem] for Obama,” said Tom Bonier of the liberal National Committee for an Effective Congress, which follows population trends and voting data closely.