WOULD NY EVEN QUALIFY AS AN UPSET?:

Is There an Upset in the Making in New York? (John Fund, 9/12/10, WSJ)

New York's Kirsten Gillibrand doesn't appear on lists of endangered Democratic Senate incumbents. But as an appointed Senator who has never faced a statewide electorate, she still has reason to look over her shoulder. Despite having held office for 18 months, the latest Quinnipiac Poll gives her no more than 45% of the vote against any of three possible GOP opponents. She holds a comfortable lead only because many New Yorkers have heard little or nothing about the GOP candidates.

Nonetheless, a full 39% of New York voters haven't heard enough about Ms. Gillibrand to form an opinion about her either. In a volatile, anti-liberal incumbent year, anything can happen. In 1994, the last such year, even the respected and well-known Daniel Patrick Moynihan won only 55% of the vote against an unknown Republican in what would prove Moynihan's last re-election campaign for the Senate in New York.

There only seem to be four genuine black swans: Inouye, Mikulski, Schumer and Leahy.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 13, 2010 6:45 AM