September 29, 2010
MAKE THAT EVERY STATEHOUSE IN NEW ENGLAND?:
Gov. Forecast Update: Republicans Are Well Positioned (NATE SILVER, 9/29/10, NY Times)
New Hampshire. A poll from American Research Group is the second consecutive one to show the Democratic incumbent, John Lynch, who had seemed a safe bet for re-election, with only a 2 percentage point advantage. American Research Group’s polls have been unreliable in the past, so the model does not give their survey very much weight, but the chances for the Republican, John Stephen, have improved to 11 percent from 7 percent last week. One thing that could be harming Mr. Lynch is that Republicans are favored to win the Senate race in New Hampshire, as well as both of the U.S. House races.
Mind you, Mr. Stephen's name recognition has to be under 40% even after winning the primary.
