SETTLING IN:

Cameron fancies a long stay at No 10: A referendum on the electoral system fits the Tory leader's plan for a permanent, winning coalition (John Rentoul, 4 July 2010, Independent)

The underlying dynamic is that the Liberal Democrats believe that the alternative vote is in their party's interest. It is not their first preference, but it is better than nothing. In the long run, they may be wrong about that, but, at the next election, it will save them some seats. And, as long as they believe it, it is in Cameron's interest to give it to them. If the referendum is lost, the glue that holds the coalition together will weaken.

This is where I think that Cameron is misunderstood. It seems to be generally assumed that, for him, the coalition is flag of convenience, hoisted to help navigate out of the tricky situation produced by the election.

I think not. I think he sees it as a chance for a permanent change in favour of liberal conservatism, a label he has always been happy to apply to himself. The coalition is not merely an expedient to get him through to the next election, when the Tories can try again to win outright. Even if they did, he would, I suspect, want to keep the Liberal Democrats on board. He knows how the alternative vote works in Australia, the only country where it is used. There, the Liberal-National coalition is, in effect, a single party in a two-party system. One that has been in power for 40 of the 65 years since the Second World War.