July 14, 2010

IN A TIDAL WAVE...:

Attention, Democrats! The Senate Is Now in Play (William Galston, July 14, 2010, New Republic)

To retain control, Democrats need at least 50 seats. They start with 45 seats that are safe or not up for election this year, and there are three more races (NY, CT, and OR) that they are likely to win, for a total of 48. (The comparable number for Republicans is 41.) That leaves 11 seats in play. Here they are, along with the most recent survey results:

CA Fiorina (R) 47, Boxer (D) 45

CO Buck (R) 48, Bennet (D) 39

FL Rubio (R) 36, Crist (I) 34, Meek (D) 15

IL Giannoulias (D) 40, Kirk (R) 39

KY Paul (R) 43, Conway (D) 43

MO Blunt (R) 48, Carnahan (D) 43

NV Angle (R) 48, Reid (D) 41

OH Portman (R) 43, Fisher (D) 39

PA Toomey (R) 45, Sestak (D) 39

WA Murray (D) 47, Rossi (R) 47

WI Feingold (D) 45, Johnson (R) 43

Apply whatever discount you want to individual surveys of varying quality and provenance; the overall picture is pretty clear.


...it's not the seats that are in play that are the story--you lose them--it's those "safe" seats that are the key. It turns out that they were in play too, you just didn't realize it at the time. The GOP will win at least one of those three.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 14, 2010 5:07 PM
blog comments powered by Disqus
« FINISHING THE W AGENDA: | Main | THERE IS A BALOCHISTAN, BUT NO PAKISTAN: »