June 3, 2010

THE POINT ABOUT '80 AND '94....:

Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2010?: Eleven Democratic seats are in play. (Fred Barnes, June 2, 2010, Weekly Standard)

The good news for Republicans comes in two parts. First, they’re ahead in four of the six open Republican seats and tied in two. That’s a great improvement from, say, late last year. Second, in the 11 Democratic seats in play, they’re ahead in five, tied in four, and within easy striking distance in the other two. Not bad for a party that was crushed in the past two national elections. [...]

In Washington and Wisconsin, Republicans are in contention on the strength of candidates who only recently decided to run. Republican Dino Rossi, twice an unsuccessful candidate for governor, trails Democratic Senator Patty Murray by a single point (Rasmussen) in Washington. And Republican businessman Ron Johnson is two points behind (Rasmussen) Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. The tightness of these contests is especially worrisome to Democrats because once seemingly safe incumbents are now in deep trouble.

Two Democratic seats are all but conceded to Republicans – in North Dakota, where Republican Governor John Hoeven is miles ahead for the seat of retiring Democrat Byron Dorgan, and in Delaware, where Republican Congressman Mike Castle is far ahead of any Democrat.

Indiana and Arkansas also look like Republican pickups. In Indiana, former senator Dan Coats leads Democrat Brad Ellsworth, currently a House member, by 15 points (Rasmussen). And in Arkansas, Republican House member John Boozman is 20 points in front of Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln in a Daily Kos poll and 11 points up on her Democratic primary challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

In Illinois, Republican Mark Kirk has a 3-point lead (Daily Kos) over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, the state treasurer. Kirk is a House member. The opposite is true in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Joe Sestak is three points ahead (Daily Kos) of Republican Pat Toomey. Sestak is a House member, Toomey a former member.

Colorado, Nevada, and California are more complicated. In Colorado, the two leading Republicans, Jane Norton and Ken Buck, lag three to six points behind Democratic Senator Michael Bennet and two to three behind Bennet’s primary challenger Andrew Romanoff in PPP polls.

In Nevada, three Republican candidates – Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, and Sharron Angle – are tightly clustered. They are either ahead of or behind Democrat Harry Reid, the Senate minority leader, by three points or fewer, according to a Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters.

Finally, in California, Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer trails Republican Tom Campbell by seven points but leads Republican Carly Fiorina by six in an LA Times poll of registered voters. Campbell is a former House member, Fiorina the ex-CEO of Hewlett-Packard.


...is the number of wins that no one saw coming.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 3, 2010 5:36 AM
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