May 13, 2010

THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR...:

How Badly Will the Democrats Do?: A few trends to watch ahead of November (Karl Rove, 5/13/10, WSJ)

The most important metric is presidential job approval. President Obama is now at 51% in Gallup and 47% in Rasmussen. When Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994, Bill Clinton's job approval was at 46%. Every president has been lower by the midterm than at the start of that year. Mr. Obama was at 50% in early January. Add a persistently high jobless rate and it points to a worse-than-normal year for Congressional Democrats.

A second factor is the generic ballot—which measures voters' preference for voting for a Republican or a Democrat. At the end of the 2008 election, Democrats led in the Gallup generic ballot by 12 points. Today, the parties are tied at 45%. At this point in 1994, the GOP was nearly five points behind. By Election Day, it was five points ahead.


...could well turn out to be recruitment. In 1994 everyone was so surprised by the GOP sweep that many of the races were won by folks who would have had trouble being elected dog catcher in a normal year. This time, the tide has been apparent from so far out that the folks running are even competent.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 13, 2010 12:45 PM
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