April 18, 2010

YET WE STILL DON'T HAVE ONE FOR SOMETHING AS IMPORTANT AS INTELLIGENCE?:

Panel OKs market for movie bets; studios want ban (Ryan Nakashima, 4/16/10, AP)

U.S. regulators on Friday approved the creation of a futures market for trading in forecast box-office receipts, but major Hollywood studios immediately trumpeted a bill that would ban it.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved the creation of the Trend Exchange, a forum that would allow movie industry participants and speculators to trade on predicted movie revenues. [...]

Backers of the box-office exchanges say those markets would help Hollywood manage risk in a notoriously hit-or-miss business.

Investors would be able to hedge against potential flops by preselling a share of future box office receipts. The exchanges could even guard against likely hits, such as the upcoming "Harry Potter" and "Twilight" sequels, falling short of projections. If a movie doesn't do as well as expected, investors would at least be guaranteed revenue from those presales, known as futures contracts.


Preventing the sort of information flow you get in markets will help studios hide the fact they have a flop on their hands, just as preventing Admiral Poindexter from creating such a market for the intelligence community helps bureaucrats hide the inadequacy of their work.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 18, 2010 5:34 AM
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