April 13, 2010

THE FIRST RIDER OF THE O-POCALYPSE™:

Republicans Lead by 48% to 44% on Congressional Ballot (Lydia Saad, 4/13/10. Gallup)

Gallup's measure of voter support for the two parties' congressional candidates asks respondents whether they would back the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in their own district if the election were held today. The results -- when based on likely voters shortly before Election Day -- have proved, historically, to be a highly accurate predictor of the national two-party vote. This, in turn, bears a close relationship to the post-election party division of House seats.

The trend based on registered voters shows how rare it is for the Republicans to lead on this "generic ballot" measure among all registered voters, as they do today. Other recent exceptions were recorded in 1994 -- when Republicans wrested majority control from the Democrats for the first time in 40 years -- and 2002, when the GOP achieved seat gains, a rarity for the president's party in midterm elections. In midterm years when Democrats prevailed at the polls (such as 2006, 1990, and 1986), their net support among registered voters typically extended into double digits at several points during the year -- something that has yet to happen in 2010.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 13, 2010 8:37 PM
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