April 10, 2010

INDEED, BY THE TIME THE NBER IS DONE COLLECTING DATA...:

Why So Glum? Numbers Point to a Recovery (FLOYD NORRIS, 4/09/10, NY Times)

Usually you can depend on the White House to view the economy with the most rose-tinted glasses available. But it was not until last week, after a strong employment report, that President Obama started to sound a little optimistic.

“The tough measures that we took — measures that were necessary even though sometimes they were unpopular — have broken this slide and are helping us to climb out of this recession,” he said in a speech at a factory making battery components in North Carolina.

Note, however, that he seemed to believe the country remained in recession. It is virtually certain that is not accurate, as least as will be determined by the arbiters of recession at the National Bureau of Economic Research. “The recession is over,” one of those arbiters, Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard, wrote this week. [...]

[I]t is normal for recessions to make people pessimistic. “Go back and read what people were saying in 1982 or 1975,” said Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG. “Nobody was saying, ‘Deep recession, big recovery.’ It is quite normal to expect an abnormally weak recovery. It is also normal for that expectation to be wrong.”


...the slowdown, though deeper than the past couple, will just barely qualify as a technical recession, the first since the early '80s.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 10, 2010 4:32 PM
blog comments powered by Disqus
« WERE HE NOT SO IGNORANT OF HISTORY...: | Main | THERE'S NOTHING MORE EXCITING THAN A TRAIN CHASE: »