February 25, 2010

SIGNS OF THE O-POCALYPSE:

What to Expect in November: An Update on the House of Representatives (Alan I. Abramowitz, February 25th, 201, Center for Politics)

According to a statistical model that has proven highly accurate in forecasting the outcomes of congressional elections, Republicans now have a good chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives in November. The model uses four independent variables to predict Republican seat change in congressional elections: the president’s net approval rating in the Gallup Poll, the results of the generic ballot question in the Gallup Poll, a dummy variable for midterm elections that is positive in Democratic midterm years and negative in Republican midterm years, and the number of seats held by Republicans before the election.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 25, 2010 11:28 AM
blog comments powered by Disqus
« THE CANDIDATE OF THE CRAZIES: | Main | WHICH IS WHY IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD LIKE TO DO: »