January 21, 2010


Quick hit: 5 Senate races where Scott Brown matters right now (CHARLES MAHTESIAN, 1/21/10, Politico)

3. Washington-Is conventional wisdom wrong? Could Sen. Patty Murray be vulnerable to challenge?

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31773.html#ixzz0dFGRxb49

According to Wikipedia:
# 2 Overview of races (37 seats)

* 2.1 Retiring Democratic Senators (5 seats)
o 2.1.1 Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
o 2.1.2 Ted Kaufman of Delaware
o 2.1.3 Roland Burris of Illinois
o 2.1.4 Paul Kirk of Massachusetts
o 2.1.5 Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
* 2.2 Retiring Republican Senators (6 seats)
o 2.2.1 George LeMieux of Florida
o 2.2.2 Sam Brownback of Kansas
o 2.2.3 Jim Bunning of Kentucky
o 2.2.4 Kit Bond of Missouri
o 2.2.5 Judd Gregg of New Hampshire
o 2.2.6 George Voinovich of Ohio
* 2.3 Democratic incumbents (14 seats)
o 2.3.1 Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
o 2.3.2 Barbara Boxer of California
o 2.3.3 Michael Bennet of Colorado
o 2.3.4 Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
o 2.3.5 Evan Bayh of Indiana
o 2.3.6 Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
o 2.3.7 Harry Reid of Nevada
o 2.3.8 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
o 2.3.9 Chuck Schumer of New York
o 2.3.10 Ron Wyden of Oregon
o 2.3.11 Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
o 2.3.12 Patrick Leahy of Vermont
o 2.3.13 Patty Murray of Washington
o 2.3.14 Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
* 2.4 Republican incumbents (12 seats)
o 2.4.1 Richard Shelby of Alabama
o 2.4.2 Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
o 2.4.3 John McCain of Arizona
o 2.4.4 Johnny Isakson of Georgia
o 2.4.5 Mike Crapo of Idaho
o 2.4.6 Chuck Grassley of Iowa
o 2.4.7 David Vitter of Louisiana
o 2.4.8 Richard Burr of North Carolina
o 2.4.9 Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
o 2.4.10 Jim DeMint of South Carolina
o 2.4.11 John Thune of South Dakota
o 2.4.12 Bob Bennett of Utah

You'd think the only ones where the GOP would have no shot are Inouye, Mikulski, Leahy, Schumer, Wyden, Feingold and you could make the case for contesting most of those.

Dems fret: 'Every state is in play' (MANU RAJU & LISA LERER, 1/21/10, Politico)

Several Democratic incumbents said later that none of the 19 Democratic seats up this year are safe — and that fundamental parts of the agenda need to be re-examined to win over voters back home.

“Every state is now in play,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who faces the toughest reelection battle of her career — most likely against wealthy Republican Carly Fiorina.

Boxer is pushing a cap-and-trade bill to control greenhouse gases, but her counterpart from California, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, said a “large cap-and-trade bill isn’t going to go ahead at this time.”

“In my view, when people are earning, when their home is secure, when their children are going to school and they’re relatively satisfied with their life, then [when] there’s a problem like health care, they want it solved,” Feinstein said. “It doesn’t threaten them. The size of this bill threatens them, and that’s one of the problems that has to be straightened out.”

Asked if red-state Democrats up in 2010 and 2012 should be nervous about the electorate, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) told POLITICO, “Oh, yeah.”

“I think part of the problem is the agenda itself,” said Conrad, who doesn’t face voters again until 2012.

Who Will Fall Next?: Scott Brown’s upset win has Republicans licking their chops about this fall’s midterms. A Daily Beast survey of the GOP’s best bets for big pickups. (Samuel P. Jacobs, 1/21/10, Daily Beast)
So is this the tip of a tidal wave? Here’s what we know: Midterms are rarely a pretty thing for the president’s party. According to Congressional Quarterly, the party that holds the White House has lost seats in 14 of the 16 midterm elections since the Second World War. That party loses two dozen seats on average in the House. In 1994, the year of Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America, the out-of-party Republicans won 54 seats. Over at the Cook Political Report, they’re projecting Democratic losses to be closer to the average number—20 to 30—than to the 1994 shellacking, but that could change in the post-Brown climate. The Rothenberg Political Report is predicting a more conservative 15- to 20-seat gain in the House for the Republicans. In the Senate, the Democrats are likely to maintain their majority but unlikely to keep it filibuster-proof at 60. The likeliest Republican Senate pickups? Seats in Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, North Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Delaware.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 21, 2010 6:20 AM
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