EVEN WHEN A rEALIST SEES THE TRUTH HE CAN'T ACCEPT THE REALITY:

As the World Turns: Obama's foreign policy approach could hardly be called radical, but it has noticeably improved America's global position all within the short span of a year. (Matthew Yglesias, December 24, 2009, American Prospect)

The basic story of the contemporary United States involves the slightly awkward combination of unmatched power and inevitable relative decline. Our economy can't grow as fast as India's or China's or Brazil's, and there's no equivalent to the EU integration process that could enhance our power and expand our reach. The only real uncertainty about relative decline concerns the extent to which those powers will be joined by other potential regional powerhouses like Nigeria, Iran, South Africa, and Indonesia, if they ever get their acts together in terms of sustained economic growth.

But even though the waning of American hegemony can be clearly seen on the horizon, the fundamental reality is that it's a long way off. China's economy is basically only Japan-sized, and the country faces massive challenges starting with the fact that the majority of the population is still impoverished peasant farmers. India is even worse off. Japan is in demographic decline. Europe isn't an actual country and can't really make foreign-policy decisions.

In other words, our power is slipping away, but only very slowly.

In other words, our power is growing, as Europe, Japan, China, India, etc. face inevitable decline (territorial, demographic, and economic). And to base US foreign policy on the bizarre notion that those places remain or will become our peers is simply mistaken. We need to be managing their decline, not ours. Not to mention that the only integration process that matters globally is that of the United States with the rest of the Anglosphere.

MORE:
U.S. Birthrates Highest Ever; Teen Pregnancies Up (Kristina Fiore, 12/21/09, MedPage Today)

The number of births in the U.S. increased yet again in 2007, topping 4.3 million -- a 1% jump over the previous year, researchers reported.

Birthrates increased among all age groups -- notably teenagers, who have seen a rise in pregnancies for the second year in a row, according to Melonie Heron, PhD, of the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, and colleagues.

The researchers published their annual report on birth statistics in the January 2010 issue of Pediatrics.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 24, 2009 7:44 AM