WINNINGS NICE, 50%+ PLUS EVEN MORE FUN:

Last-minute NY 23rd poll: Conservative Doug Hoffman surges, but ... (Andrew Malcolm, November 2, 2009 , LA Times)

It now sounds as if the national party, which originally backed Scozzafava as the choice of state party county chairpeople, has gotten the new grass-roots message. This afternoon, House Minority Leader John Boehner said he regrets having backed Scozzafava.

Now listen to the RNC's new ad by clicking here. The "Pelosi/Paterson train wreck," "real conservative change," "proven conservative ideas like lower taxes."

But did you notice anything missing from that ad? Listen again.

It doesn't mention the candidate's name. Hmmm.

Well, the new last-minute polling by the Siena Research Institute shows Hoffman gaining momentum and pulling away to a 41-36 lead over Owens among likely voters. However, the pollsters said many of Scozzafava's supporters seem to have moved into the "undecided" column, which has increased to 18% -- keeping the outcome hard to predict.

However, the numbers also show that Hoffman's support among Republicans has soared from 27% in mid-October, before the Palin/Thompson/Armey endorsements, to 50% last Saturday and 63% today.

Meanwhile, Owens' support among Republicans moved from 19% to 13% to 14%, and his support among Democrats went from 55% to 66% to 62%.

Hence, the arrival of Biden to shore up his own base.

The irony of the Right making a hero of an open borders Republican is worth the price of admission, but as you read all the pundits saying he represents the capture of the GOP by its radical theocrat wing, getting a majority instead of a plurality would be beautiful, since it would mean the general electorate had joined the church.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 3, 2009 3:49 PM