September 22, 2009

THAT'S NOT HOW A TIDAL WAVE WORKS:

Senate Democrats Grapple with a Suddenly Less Promising 2010 (Jay Newton-Small, Sep. 21, 2009, TIME)

The political scandal surrounding Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and now Senator Roland Burris handicapped the Democrats' chances of keeping Obama's old Senate seat. Governors in Colorado and New York appointed two relative unknowns to fill Hillary Clinton and Ken Salazar's shoes, respectively, both of whom left for the cabinet. And then Ted Kennedy died, prompting a Massachusetts special election due to be held in January.

Even worse, there are at least five incumbents that are facing competitive races: Barbara Boxer in California, who will be facing off with former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina; Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln, Pennsylvania's new Democratic Senator Arlen Specter, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Connecticut's Chris Dodd. Reid and Dodd both have some of the worst polls in the Senate - hovering near 30% approval ratings. "Illinois, Pennsylvania, Connecticut: those will be the most expensive to defend," says Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks congressional races. "The more money you have to spend on defense takes away from what you're spending on offense."


In a best case scenario the party in power has to worry about seats like these in a midterm. Democrats are creating a worst case, which means it is some seemingly safe seats that they should be scared about, places like DE, HI, WA, etc..

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 22, 2009 6:15 AM
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