JELL-O ISN'T THAT EASY TO PIN DOWN:

A Clear Signal on Total Cost, Less Clarity on How to Pay (JANET ADAMY, 9/11/09, WSJ)

President Barack Obama said in his address to Congress on Wednesday that the health overhaul should cost about $900 billion over a decade and not increase the budget deficit. It was the strongest signal he has given on the total tab, but Mr. Obama left unclear how he wants to cover it.

The Dime Standard (DAVID BROOKS, 9/11/09, NY Times)

[O]bama rested the credibility of his presidency on what you might call the Dime Standard. He was flexible about many things, but not this: “I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits — either now or in the future. Period.”

This sound bite kills the House health care bill. That bill would add $220 billion (that’s 2.2 trillion dimes) to the deficit over the first 10 years and another $1 trillion (10 trillion dimes) to the deficit over the next 10 years.

There is no way to get from the House bill to deficit neutrality. The president’s speech guarantees that the more moderate Senate Finance Committee bill will be the basis for the negotiations to come.

The Dime Standard also sets off a political cascade. Since the Congressional Budget Office is the universally accepted arbiter in such matters, the Democrats have to produce a bill that the C.B.O. says is deficit-neutral, now and forever.

Wanna bet? Prepare for the coming spin as they try to use a source other than CBO to score the bill.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 11, 2009 8:06 AM